NI (NiSource) — Logan Shared Research

Thesis

Regulated Midwestern utility with structural demand tailwind from AI/data-center power buildout. Contracted, rate-based infrastructure — no commodity exposure. Pure-play utility beneficiary of electric load growth from hyperscaler data-center commitments.

Position

• 52.149 shares @ $47.94 (2026-04-23)
• Stop: $43.15 | Target: $55.00
• Weight: 9.8% of $25.1K book
• Current (EOD 5/21): $47.71 | UR: -$11.99 (-0.48%)
• Day range: $46.91–$47.84 | RS +0.4 vs SPY 1h

EOD 5/21 Notes

• +1.5% 1d recovery. Day range $46.91-47.84 on 13.5% above-average volume.
• Triple-validation thesis still unpriced: NEE/D merger, ADI DC/Comm +60% YoY, NVDA $89-92.8B Q2 guide.
• Rate sensitivity remains the unresolved variable — 10Y Treasury >5% compresses utility multiples.
• RS +0.4 vs SPY 1h — positive but anemic. Utilities grind, they don't gap.
• Stop $43.15 (9.6% cushion) safe. Target $55.00 stands. Highest-conviction thesis on the book.
• Overnight research: Re-read Q4 transcript for rate-sensitivity commentary. Check if management flagged margin compression from rising rates.

Key Catalysts

• Alphabet: 340 MW pooled resources, service begins summer 2026
• Amazon: additional 400 MW
• Pipeline: 3 GW strategic negotiations, ~2 GW developing
• $21B 5-year base capex; $7.6B data-center specific
• LT EPS CAGR raised to 9-10% (from 8-9%) through 2033

External Thesis Validation

• IVES ETF launch (May 2026) — institutionalization of AI power demand thesis
• NBIS raised power procurement 3.5GW → 4GW (May 14, 2026)
• NEE/Dominion merger (May 18, 2026) — $419B EV, largest utility deal in history, explicitly citing AI/data-center power demand
• ADI beat-and-raise (May 19, 2026) — Comm/Data Center +60% YoY, management explicitly flagged AI data-center power infrastructure demand. Second independent $30B+ entity validating the thesis within 48 hours.
• Two tier-1 supplier data points (NEE/D + ADI) confirm AI infrastructure capex cycle is accelerating, not peaking. NI is among the purest utility expressions of this theme.

Valuation

Trades at standard utility multiples despite above-sector growth rate. Market has not priced the 9-10% EPS CAGR differential vs 5-7% utility sector average.

Risks

• Regulatory rate-case outcomes (Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania)
• AI power demand thesis reversal (hyperscaler capex pullback)
• Interest rate sensitivity (utility beta to 10Y)

Verdict (2026-05-20)

Thesis upgraded from "confirmed" to "externally validated." NEE/D merger ($419B EV) and ADI beat-and-raise (+60% Comm/DC YoY) independently validate AI power demand thesis from two $30B+ entities. The market has not priced it — stock still underwater at $47.02. RS deterioration to -0.4 vs SPY 1h is noise on a utility name: utilities grind, they don't gap. NVDA beat-and-raise ($89-92.8B Q2 guide) confirms AI capex accelerating — tailwind for thesis. Stop $43.15 safe (8.2% cushion). Target $55.00 stands. This is the highest-conviction thesis on the book.

Recent News

NiSource Q4 Adj. EPS $0.51 Beats $0.50 Estimate, Sales $1.891B Beat $1.519B Estimate

NiSource Signs Agreement With Alphabet's Subsidiary To Support Development, Operations Of Large-Scale Data Center In Indiana; Inks Expanded Agreement With Amazon Web Services Over Energization Of Amazon Sites;

NiSource Teams Up With Alphabet And Amazon To Power AI Data Centers—And Says Your Energy Bills Could Drop By This Much
On Thursday, NiSource (NYSE:NI) announced a long-term energy supply agreement with a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Powering AI Growth Without Raising Bills The agreement with Alphabet is to support a large data center in northern Indiana, as demand for AI infrastructur...
Update - NiSource Q1 Adj. EPS $1.06 Beats $1.05 Estimate, Sales $2.363B Beat $2.252B Estimate

NiSource Q1 Adj. EPS $1.06 Beats $1.05 Estimate

NiSource Reports Q1 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript
NiSource (NYSE:NI) reported first-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company's first-quarter earnings call has been provided below. Benzinga APIs provide real-time access to earnings call transcripts and financial data. Visit https://www.benzinga.com/apis/ to learn mo...
Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026
Companies Reporting Before The Bell • Deluxe (NYSE:DLX) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.89 per share on revenue of $534.76 million. • BioCryst Pharma (NASDAQ:BCRX) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.10 per share on revenue of $152.16 million. • Clear Channel Outdoor (N...
NiSource Receives Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission Approval For Its Collaboration With Amazon Over New Data Center Development In State

NiSource Q2 Adj. EPS $0.16, Inline, Sales $1.342B Beat $1.337B Estimate

NiSource Q2 Adj. EPS $0.16, Inline